As President Bush nears the end of his term, it seems the vow he had made in 2001 to finish off Osama bin Laden will remain unfulfilled. The reason is the Al Qaeda has found a safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. Security experts say that Al Qaeda is planning a major attack on the USA on the scale of 9/11. Despite Pakistan being on the side of the USA, why is the terror organization still thriving in Pakistan? There are no simple answers to this complex issue. 1. The Pakistani army is scared of the hardy tribals living in North and South Waziristan and in the NWFP. More than a century ago, the British had tried to tame them, with little success. This view is strongly held by Musharraf’s man on the tribal areas, General Aurakzai, who instead favours negotiations rather than military action. 2. The US is wary of sending its own soldiers in there. This is because of two reasons. Firstly, it is aware of the reputation of the tribal fighters. Secondly, it’s army is not knowledgeable of the topography. It cannot launch a campaign without the co-operation of the Pakistani military. The Pakistani government is not very enthusiastic about sending in its army there because it has got a bloody nose once too often. Also allowing US forces on the country’s soil would be political suicide, considering the anti-US feeling in Pakistan. 3. Bush has been accused of being too soft on Musharraf. Instead of banging on the table and demanding Musharraf deliver Laden’s head on a platter to him (after all, Bush continues giving millions of dollars to Pakistan every month, with no question asked). Some see this as Bush’s weakness. Others feel Bush was being wise in not pushing Musharraf too far. A kneeling Musharraf (before the US) would only have strengthened the hands of the Islamists. 4. The inclination of the US military planners of getting results with minimum human casualty has been a hindrance. Direct action by navy Seals is needed, not precision missile attacks to finish off Al qaeda in the Pak-Afghan border. The CIA officers at the Islamabad station call the personnel at the counter-terrorism center at CIA headquarters, as ‘boys with toys.’ 5. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, distracted attention of military planners from the Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Resources meant for the purpose were diverted to Iraq. For instance, when American military and intelligence officials requested additional Predator drones to survey the tribal areas, they were told no drones were available because they had been sent to Iraq. 6. Though Pakistan is supposed to help the US in the war on terror, it has a dual policy on the matter. One is the ‘co-operative’ face of Pakistan, where Pakistan military officers work with the US army and the CIA to hunt down the Al Qaeda. The other face of the Pakistan government is symbolized by the ISI. It has its own agenda, of keeping alive the jehadis on the frontier areas, so that they can be used against India and to also keep alive Pakistan’s interests In Afghanistan. With all these complexities involved, it is no wonder that bin Laden sits pretty in Pakistan and calmly plans the next attack on the US as the US fumes and frets helplessly. Source: IHT
Pakistan’s tribal areas issue: An all-powerful ISI and weak politicains
As far the tribal areas problem in Pakistan is concerned, the arrival of a democratic government at Islamabad seems to have made no difference. The fact is the politicians are so busy arguing over the removal of Musharraf and the re-instatement of Justice Chaudhury and company that they have not paid proper attention to the issue. Officials from the Awami National Party have said they can get the militants to the negotiating table and even hammer out a deal, but the main federal parties have not consulted them on the matter. The interior minister himself seems to be in the dark about how things stand in the tribal areas. This inactivity on the part of the Pakistani politicians is making the situation worse in the area. Infiltration into Afghanistan by Taliban/ Al Qaeda fighters is increasing. Karzai is exasperated by this and has threatened to cross over the border in hot pursuit. The US is similarly frustrated. But the civilian Pakistani government is not entirely to blame. Today the military and particularly the ISI is calling the shots as far the tribal areas are concerned. And it is a well known fact that no civilian government has been able to control the army and the ISI. The ISI has its own agenda on Afghanistan. It is not going to give up its trump card, the Taliban, just because it is asked to do so. Pakistani army boss, Kiyani, too has kept a low profile. He does not want that it appear that army is making all the decisions on the tribal areas and so has largely kept quiet. But he has given the ISI a free hand to do as it pleases. So Musharraf’s decline and the rise of democratic politics has made no impact on the militants’ menace in the frontier provinces. Things will not change till the ISI is tamed. But that seems quite an impossible proposition. No Pakistani politician has the guts (or the inclination) to bell the cat. After all it would be tantamount to committing suicide. Via: IHT Image
No easy solution to growth of militancy in Pakistani tribal areas
The tribal areas of Pakistan (FATA) are turning out to be the biggest headache for both the US and the fledgling Pakistan government. Experts have been pointing out that the area is slipping out of the hands of Islamabad. Musharraf had tried sending in the army but there were heavy casualties with little results. Islamabad has tried to strike deals with the tribal leaders but this has made no impact on the rise of Al Qaeda/Taliban in the region. US intel agencies now say the next attack on the US is being planned from there. It is widely believed that Laden and Zawahiri are living in the region. The Bush administration has tried all the tricks in the book to push the Pakistan government to act strongly in the outlaw area of the country, but nothing seems to work. A desperate US is now thinking of a direct attack on the area using its own forces to flush out Al Qaeda leaders. Bush wants Laden’s head before his term ends. This has added a new urgency to the task. Stratfor believes an US action is imminent. But if this happens, it will not only make the US even more unpopular in Pakistan, but will undermine the legitimacy of the Gilani government. This will only help the Islamists. US military action will yield little beyond perhaps an ailing Laden (being very optimistic). The action will do nothing to curb the lawlessness and influence of Islamists. That can be done only by Pakistan. Islamabad is unable to do much because some sections of the army are in cahoots with the militants. The ISI wants the tribal areas lawless so that Taliban continues flourishing here and keep its interests alive in Afghanistan. The long-term solution would be economic growth and spread of education in the FATA. But what about the short term? There are no answers. The root of the problem is the ISI and its Afghan policy. But who will bell the cat? Daily Times Image