Its been seven years since US led coalition toppled Taleban. There are some 70,000 foreign troops on ground in Afghanistan. But yet Taleban has managed to get stronghold just outside Maydan Shar, the capital of Wardak province, 20 miles southwest of the capital. It is from this Wardak base the militants are operating on all important supply routes and roads to Kabul. These include Kabul-Khadahar and Kabul-Pakistan via Jalalabad routes, the important arterial roads in the region.

This is a historic war tactic used two decades ago against the Soviets and before that against the British in 1841. Afghan army and government refuses to acknowledge this new strategy of Taleban. They claim they are still in control. But ground reports, attacks on supply convoys, aid workers, troops and claims by Taleban spokesperson clearly indicate that Taleban are applying historic strategy of beseiging all routes to Kabul to regain total control. Afghanistan’s rocky terrain has always helped local Taleban to launch such sudden attacks.

There is no immediate answer to the question of the truck drivers. Afghanistan has been a difficult battle for US and its allies largely due to terrain, extreme weather and Taleban operating from bordering countries like Pakistan.The local Afghanistan government and army have not been able to help in uprooting Taleban and Al-Qaeda totally. US intentions are still a suspect in this land largely dominated by conservative muslims. Troops haven’t won total trust of local people. And very little development work in the region is infact helping Taleban to recruit new militants from frustrated local villagers.The use of rocket launchers and modern weaponary shows there is no dearth of fund, expertise and support from Arab countries.

On the other hand, America has been vocal about pulling out of Iraq and sending more troops to Afghanistan. So, battlelines and strategies are becoming more clear. Both sides want a win. The role of US and allies, Afghanistan government and Pakistan will be very crucial if at all a peace process is initiated. Or else Afghanistan war may end up as most bloodied war in the history of the world. Unfortunately, neither diplomacy nor Peace, but only war and violence will be a winner once again.

source: timesonline

Afghanistan is gradually turning into a secure shelter for international jihads and the jihadist movements. It is getting stronger even than Iraq. But how it has been possible? Because they are inviting insurgents newly trained in Pakistan and in many other countries. There is an online network facilitating this process of developing pristine jihads in the country- known as a call for “lions of Islam” to join the war in Afghanistan. And this online recruitment is going on particularly in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Chechnya and Turkey.

Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding somewhere in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) of Pakistan. This is the center place for training to the jihads and is sending them to join the Afghanistan warlords. The boarder line between Afghanistan and Pakistan is facing more attacks these days. According to Admiral Michael Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the al-Qaeda-linked foreign fighters are seen with larger groups in Fata. The increase is remarkable with compared to the past years.

Reports say that in the year 2007, there was an agreement between al-Qaeda and Hizb-e-Islami according to which both will work together for the same cause. Abu Yusuf Saleh al-Yemeni, an emissary for al-Qaeda, now except leading al-Qaeda, also manages the Hizb-e-Islami fighters, Taliban and Pakistani militants from bases in Nuristan. This place is seen with more than 400 militants scattered everywhere and moving fearlessly all around. These foreigners include Chechens, Arabs and Pakistanis. More recently Lashkar-e-Toiba fighters have been linked to al-Qaeda.

The increasing strength and dominance of this insurgent group is clearly visible in the recent attack of July 13 that almost overran a remote US combat outpost at Wanat in Nuristan. And it was nothing less than a “first rate” attack in fact. We don’t know what the aim and extent the jihadist movements have set for fighting, but one thing is sure that they become doubly stronger and violent after each defeat.

Source: timesonline

British Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) - the joint civilian and military organization which is in charge of the rebuilding projects has been facing series of roadblocks. Most of British funds have been cleverly siphoned off by Afghan counterparts and contractors even before the reconstruction began. These contractors gave parts of projects to subcontractors. The sub contractors who undertook actual construction work used poor quality materials so the roads and buildings have crumbled much before completion. These include main bazaar road in Musa Qala, a health clinic and a mosque.

Most of utopian dreams of rebuilding Musa Qala have crumbled but yet the spirit of British troops is upbeat. They feel the attempt and planning itself is a big step forward in a place like Afghanistan. Musa Qala is strategically a good place to begin a positive peace process along with Afghan government and to keep Taleban away. The troops can slowly move inwards once confidence is established. Efforts are being made at all levels to bring in the change. Local commerce has improved, military stabilization team has established local governance and an Afghan civil secretariat. Local militiants are being inducted in to local police force.

In destroyed lands, first of all it is important to rebuild the spirit of people. Local community must realize that their life is being rebuilt for their own sake. Building utopia without solid foundation is bound to crumble.

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source: timesonline

A desperate US is now thinking of a direct attack on the area using its own forces to flush out Al Qaeda leaders. Bush wants Laden’s head before his term ends. This has added a new urgency to the task. Stratfor believes an US action is imminent. But if this happens, it will not only make the US even more unpopular in Pakistan, but will undermine the legitimacy of the Gilani government. This will only help the Islamists.

US military action will yield little beyond perhaps an ailing Laden (being very optimistic). The action will do nothing to curb the lawlessness and influence of Islamists. That can be done only by Pakistan. Islamabad is unable to do much because some sections of the army are in cahoots with the militants. The ISI wants the tribal areas lawless so that Taliban continues flourishing here and keep its interests alive in Afghanistan.

The long-term solution would be economic growth and spread of education in the FATA. But what about the short term? There are no answers. The root of the problem is the ISI and its Afghan policy. But who will bell the cat?
Daily Times
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The latest G8 Summit at Hokkaido is supposed to address (besides other issues) the problem of global food scarcity. Ban Ki-moon rightly urged the world leaders to be generous and give immediate food assistance to the poorest nations of the world. But the Summit has made a bad start. The rich menu of delicacies which the world leaders will feast upon looks out of place in today’s situation of rising food prices and global hunger. While according to UN estimates, 105 million more people, including 30 million in Africa, could drop below the poverty line because of rising food prices, G8 leaders will bite into caviar, milk fed lamb, sea urchin and tuna, with champagne and wines flown in from Europe and the U.S.

The picture of the gastronomic indulgence of leaders of the dominant nations of the world points to the lack of real concern towards the suffering and hunger of millions in the world, especially in Africa. In 2005, at the G8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, world leaders had solemnly vowed to give $25 billion in aid by 2010. Till today the rich nations have only given a minuscule 14% of the amount. Amidst this Gordon Brown Gordon Brown urges his countrymen to avoid waste in the kitchen. Bush had made facetious remarks a few months ago about the Chinese and Indians eating more and contributing to rising food prices.

But there is good news too. The EU has understood the gravity of the situation and decided to direct towards Africa the amount saved from cuts in farm subsidies. But much more needs to be done. The G8 leaders could have send a strong signal to the world that they are serious and sensitive to the rising hunger in the world by make doing with a simple menu on their dining tables. The rich luxurious menu seems like a cruel joke to the starving millions.
Source: TimesOnline, Daily Mail

There are many reasons for the growing strength of Taliban. First of all, it is getting more support from confederation of militant groups from eastern Afghanistan for its fight against American military. These militant groups proliferate along the border of Pakistan and often take refuge in the tribal areas of Pakistan. They even launch cross-border attack into Afghanistan. Pakistan government’s peace talks and negotiations with these groups in the tribal belts don’t seem to work. American officials are growing skeptical about role of Pakistan too.

Secondly, American troops not only find it difficult to tackle the difficult mountainous terrain of Pakistan-Afghanistan border which is a haven for Taliban and militant groups, even the weather plays a tricky part. Insurgency and attacks are low in winters when mountains are covered with snow. Summer is the weather for combat. The tradition continues and now is the peak time of guerrilla warfare for Taliban backed insurgents. This could partly be the reason for increased violence in Afghanistan.

There seems to be no end in sight for the continuing war in Afghanistan. War is going on in the rough terrain of Afghanistan since 2001. The region has highest number of foreign troops which include some 32,000 American troops and 38,000 American-led coalition troops from other countries under NATO. Yet, there is a growing demand for more troops and sophisticated weapons from American side. Can more troops curb Taliban led insurgency?

Taliban will never give up its fight against the forceful military occupation of the region by America. They want to reinstate religiously conservative Pashtun led government in Afghanistan. They’ll continue to irritate and kill American troops with road-side bombs and small attacks and gain more control over regions. More troops and stock of sophisticated weapons will not help either. Modern wars never bring hope of peace.

source: IHT

President Bush seems to desperately want to add laurels to his presidency in its twilight hour. How else could one explain the striking off of North Korea from the terrorism blacklist? It is very likely that North Korea has been supplying nuclear arms technology to Iran and Syria. It is also very probable that it is continuing with its nuclear enrichment programme.

President Bush not only took off the ‘bad boys’ label from North Korea but has also sent in shiploads of badly needed wheat into the country. In return for what? For a dramatic destroyal of the old Yongbyon nuclear reactor. Besides that North Korea has only given some details of its nuclear programme. What is totally missing is any mention of its enrichment plans and its aid to Iran and Syria.

Many in the Bush administration are not happy with the concessions given to North Korea. It seems that Condoleezza Rice has won over Dick Cheney as far as that country is concerned. Though Rice has said there is still a long way to go and that North Korea has to do much more, one wonders why the rogue country was not squeezed further to bring it into line. The floods in the country last year have destroyed the crops. More concessions could have been got from Kim Jong Il.

Instead the US seems to be taking a “big-hearted” approach towards a country that has always acted aggressively and secretly. It has contributed much to the proliferation of missiles and nuclear technology in the world. There is a saying that a dog’s tail always remains crooked. It applies prefectly to Kim Jong’s Korea.
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Source: WSJ

As President Bush nears the end of his term, it seems the vow he had made in 2001 to finish off Osama bin Laden will remain unfulfilled. The reason is the Al Qaeda has found a safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. Security experts say that Al Qaeda is planning a major attack on the USA on the scale of 9/11. Despite Pakistan being on the side of the USA, why is the terror organization still thriving in Pakistan? There are no simple answers to this complex issue.

1. The Pakistani army is scared of the hardy tribals living in North and South Waziristan and in the NWFP. More than a century ago, the British had tried to tame them, with little success. This view is strongly held by Musharraf’s man on the tribal areas, General Aurakzai, who instead favours negotiations rather than military action.

2. The US is wary of sending its own soldiers in there. This is because of two reasons. Firstly, it is aware of the reputation of the tribal fighters. Secondly, it’s army is not knowledgeable of the topography. It cannot launch a campaign without the co-operation of the Pakistani military. The Pakistani government is not very enthusiastic about sending in its army there because it has got a bloody nose once too often. Also allowing US forces on the country’s soil would be political suicide, considering the anti-US feeling in Pakistan.

3. Bush has been accused of being too soft on Musharraf. Instead of banging on the table and demanding Musharraf deliver Laden’s head on a platter to him (after all, Bush continues giving millions of dollars to Pakistan every month, with no question asked). Some see this as Bush’s weakness. Others feel Bush was being wise in not pushing Musharraf too far. A kneeling Musharraf (before the US) would only have strengthened the hands of the Islamists.

4. The inclination of the US military planners of getting results with minimum human casualty has been a hindrance. Direct action by navy Seals is needed, not precision missile attacks to finish off Al qaeda in the Pak-Afghan border. The CIA officers at the Islamabad station call the personnel at the counter-terrorism center at CIA headquarters, as ‘boys with toys.’

5. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, distracted attention of military planners from the Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Resources meant for the purpose were diverted to Iraq. For instance, when American military and intelligence officials requested additional Predator drones to survey the tribal areas, they were told no drones were available because they had been sent to Iraq.

6. Though Pakistan is supposed to help the US in the war on terror, it has a dual policy on the matter. One is the ‘co-operative’ face of Pakistan, where Pakistan military officers work with the US army and the CIA to hunt down the Al Qaeda. The other face of the Pakistan government is symbolized by the ISI. It has its own agenda, of keeping alive the jehadis on the frontier areas, so that they can be used against India and to also keep alive Pakistan’s interests In Afghanistan.

With all these complexities involved, it is no wonder that bin Laden sits pretty in Pakistan and calmly plans the next attack on the US as the US fumes and frets helplessly.

Source: IHT

An American diplomat left North Korea on 9th May with boxes of documents (approximately 18,000 secret papers) containing details of two decades of Pyongyang’s nuclear secrets. That was the beginning of a process of undoing a long standing global-Asian tension. The unbending North Korea gave the signal of budging and the US was always there to make room. Prez Bush has responded by announcing that he would lift trade sanctions dating back to the 1950-53 conflict and remove North Korea from the US terrorism blacklist. It was necessary for him to score a foreign policy win before quitting his office later this year, but his declaration came with a rider - he said that the move could be reversed if North Korea fails to comply with US demands and abandon its nuclear program in a verifiable way.

Issuing a statement from White House, he left ample signs of his misgivings about North Korea, when he said,

We will trust you only to the extent you fulfill your promises.

Despite that, Mr Bush notified Congress that in 45 days, he intended to take North Korea off the State Department list of state sponsors of terrorism.

However, the result could not have come at a more opportune moment for China. Barely six weeks before the Olympics, Beijing is able to show the world that it has used its influence to break the deadlock. A State Department statement said that the reclusive state has handed China an arms dossier of its nuclear activities. The 60-page document covers nuclear production back to 1986 and includes information on the country’s plutonium program, uranium enrichment and proliferation activities. It also promises to demolish the cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear complex. North Korea can now glimpse a route to emerging from its self-imposed isolation though UN sanctions would remain in place.

Its pariah status has benefited no one, and certainly its people have suffered a lot. It also offers the best hope so far of the two countries — which are technically still at war — negotiating a peace treaty and establishing conventional diplomatic ties.

However, the development has triggered a discussion about the message of this whole episode. There are people who think that the Bush benevolence would prompt many to consider it a weakness towards nations which indulge in unscrupulous designs. Weapons of mass destruction can be developed with a certain amount of assurance. Others view it as a win for the six nations talk.

Source : Times Online

Rumour says that the future of the American Marine Corp is going to be in Afghanistan. News that the bush administration is retooling it Afghanistan Stratergy and the fact that the Marines will soon be turning over the security responsibility for the Anbar province back to Iraqi forces. The Marines may still stayover at Iraq to help Iraqi forces but there are plans for gradual withdrawal.

The Marine heads including the commandant, Gen. James Conway, are expressing desire to get back to Afghanistan. Infact two Marine units, the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit from Camp Lejeune, and the 2nd battalion, 7th regiment from Twentynine Palms, have already been deployed to Afghanistan for a seven-month period.

The LA times reported that some Marines feel that returning to Afghanistan would present an opportunity to complete some unfinished business.

Is the move to Afghanistan the next in the US agenda to topple the Taliban?

Source: LA Times

As far the tribal areas problem in Pakistan is concerned, the arrival of a democratic government at Islamabad seems to have made no difference. The fact is the politicians are so busy arguing over the removal of Musharraf and the re-instatement of Justice Chaudhury and company that they have not paid proper attention to the issue. Officials from the Awami National Party have said they can get the militants to the negotiating table and even hammer out a deal, but the main federal parties have not consulted them on the matter. The interior minister himself seems to be in the dark about how things stand in the tribal areas.

This inactivity on the part of the Pakistani politicians is making the situation worse in the area. Infiltration into Afghanistan by Taliban/ Al Qaeda fighters is increasing. Karzai is exasperated by this and has threatened to cross over the border in hot pursuit. The US is similarly frustrated.

But the civilian Pakistani government is not entirely to blame. Today the military and particularly the ISI is calling the shots as far the tribal areas are concerned. And it is a well known fact that no civilian government has been able to control the army and the ISI.

The ISI has its own agenda on Afghanistan. It is not going to give up its trump card, the Taliban, just because it is asked to do so. Pakistani army boss, Kiyani, too has kept a low profile. He does not want that it appear that army is making all the decisions on the tribal areas and so has largely kept quiet. But he has given the ISI a free hand to do as it pleases.

So Musharraf’s decline and the rise of democratic politics has made no impact on the militants’ menace in the frontier provinces. Things will not change till the ISI is tamed. But that seems quite an impossible proposition. No Pakistani politician has the guts (or the inclination) to bell the cat. After all it would be tantamount to committing suicide.

Via: IHT

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While many endorse the peace deal, the US and other western allies have strong reservations about the deal. Washington believe that peace deals in Pakistan’s restless tribal areas are times when the Taliban prepare themselves for launching attacks across the border into Afghanistan and other Western targets. Yet as far as the local population is concerned the peace deal is a chance for tourism to return to the region. Tourists used to flock the swat valley in hordes during peaceful times but the continuous fighting has robbed the region of his most important economic lifeline. Furthermore, with the introduction of the strict Sharia law,one of the main demands of the fundamentalists would lead to the formation of more terror groups and would close down all democratic rights of the people. Pakistani human rights groups have alleged the Pakistani government of bowing to the pressure of the fundamentalists as the peace deal has provided more power to the regional clerics.

The deal was struck by the new Pakistani government and Islamabad hopes that if this is successful, it could be implemented in other parts of the nortwest frontier province angering western powers and Afghanistan. Many see this peace deal to be a way to clip President Parvez Musharraf’s wings who is seen as a staunch US ally and many have blamed the former general of stoking extremism by fighting fire with fire but one must not forget that Parvez Musharraf also tried many peace deals but failed miserably.

No wonder the current peace deal is doomed even before it is implemented widely.
Via: BBC

Nawaz Sharif’s daring call for Musharraf to be executed shows how much foothold he has gained since returning to mainstream Pakistani politics from his exile in Saudi Arabia. This also hints at the decline of Musharraf’s power and popularity. Sharif’s speech was particularly fiery and there was a clear indication that the man who was ousted by President Musharraf in 1999 is gearing up for a serious political revenge against his arch rival. Sharif’s rise in popularity since his return coinciding with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has made Musharraf very uncomfortable politically and now there is a classic three-party tangle for the control of power in Islamabad. The problem is with no concrete political solution in Pakistan, there is a lingering fear that the nuclear-armed Islamic country could be taken over by radical Islamists leading to a complete security disaster for the region.

With lawyers increasing their protest against Musharraf and Asif Ali Zardari, whose PPP is heading a coalition government in Islamabad, Nawaz Sharif has succeded in gaining support of powerful democratic institutional associations. With the PPP and Sharif’s PML(N)failing to agree on several issues, Nawaz Sharif has made it his agenda to humiliate both Musharraf and Asif Ali Zardari’s PPP in order to restore himself as the sole power figure in Pakistani politics and at the moment he is heading in the right direction.

It remains to be seen where this highly unstable South Asian country heads but it cannot be denied that the once forgotten Pakistani political figure has come back to haunt his arch rival in his quest to wrestle back the prize he lost nine years ago in a bloodless coup.
Via: Reuters

Giving a clear hint of vindication – Nawaz Sharif was overthrown way back in 1999 by Musharraf in a coup when he was the army chief – with this decision, he may have aired his intention to his coalition partner, Mr Zardari. Of late, differences between the coalition partners too have come for some scrutiny, with neither of them clearly stating their stand on Musharraf’s continuity.

The timing of the decision could not have been more inappropriate for Nawaz Sharif simply because Ishaq Dar, the Finance Minister in his cabinet of ministers, was slated to come up with his annual budget in next couple of weeks. Nawaz Sharif said,

We want the unconditional, dignified and honourable return of the judges. For the time being, we’ll not sit in opposition. We will not be part of any conspiracy aimed at strengthening dictatorships.

If the tug-of-war between the coalition partners on this issue doesn’t reach to its logical ends very soon, Pakistan could witness (after years of military regime) a serious jolt to the just introduced democracy. So, its time for Nawaz Sharif for some serious introspection, which might give the country respite from such hiccups.

The international audience will closely monitor the developments, especially the king makers United States and Britain. If reports are to be believed, rival faction PPP has already shown its desire to work out a formula which will allow Musharraf to continue in office, by relinquishing few powers, e.g. the right to dismiss Parliament.

Source: Timesonline

Are Japan and China inching closer to each other to start a new era of political and diplomatic bonhomie? The inhumane Japanese atrocities on the Chinese during the Second World War had embittered the Chinese towards Japan. However, with time being the best healer, both the countries seemed to have buried the past. After a decade, a Chinese President will be visiting Japan. Despite of best efforts by the two countries there are some contentious issues waiting to be resolved.

The latest flare-up between the two countries occurred when Japan’s health minister announced on January this year that 10 people in the country had died from food poisoning after eating Chinese-made dumplings. Japanese investigators seized six packets of dumplings and discovered traces of methamidophos, a lethal pesticide that is banned in both Japan and China. However, Chinese investigators failed to detect any trace of the lethal pesticides in the Chinese manufacturing plant in China. With the origin of the contamination remaining a mystery, a new tension has flared up between China and Japan.

The visit of the former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, which houses the remains of war criminals, had created fury in China. China on its part had sought to block Japan’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. With the current Chinese atrocities in Tibet being fresh in memory, it remains to be seen whether Japan rakes up the Tibet issue with Hu Jintao.

Source:Independent
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