Pakistani President Parvez Musharraf faces an unprecedented opposition in his country ahead of the National Assembly elections on Monday. Although this is not a Presidential election, President Musharraf’s fate probably rests on the results of the elections. An opposition victory in the provincial assemblies and the National Assembly could pit the former army chief against a very hostile parliament which would then pressurise him to step down from his post. There have been media reports that the pro-Musharraf party Pakistan Muslim League-Q(PML-Q)is taking all the necessary steps, fair and foul, to maintain its supremacy in the provincial assemblies. PML-Q’s rivals are the late Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party(PPP) and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s party Pakistan Muslim League-N(PML-N) but both the opposition parties allege that President Musharraf would not allow a free and fair poll to take place come Monday.

Opinion polls suggest that the PML-Q, which was created by President Musharraf to back his military rule, is facing a lack of support in all the provinces that would go to vote on February 18. The Independent reveals that the support for the PML-Q stands as low as 12% as the opposition cashes in on the President’s increasing unpopularity. Months of political turmoil and military violence have made the nuclear-armed US ally very volatile and the ordinary people are fed up of daily violence, inflation, power shortages and widespread corruption. President Musharraf has already called Monday’s vote as ‘mother of all elections’ and has urged international opinion poll firms not to pre-judge results which could incite violence in the country. If the polls are fair, which many do not expect to be, there is every chance that the PPP would gain a massive sympathy vote to win the elections. The assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is still fresh in the minds of the people and it remains to be seen whether the sympathy votes have enough strength to provide a major blow to President Musharraf’s political ambitions.

What could hurt the opposition surge is the fact that extremism has proved to be a major stumbling block in path of election campaigning and low turnout is expected on Monday too as people are very much concerned about their security in voting queues. Among the four provinces that would go to the polls, Punjab and Sindh are the key and analysts believe that the PPP would gain immensely amidst a sympathy vote. With Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N also likely to make significant inroads, there is every possibility that the PPP and the PML-N would form a coalition government to put pressure on Musharraf. But it must not be forgotten that President Musharraf’s allies are very powerful and have the support of strong families in the countryside which could turn the contest on its head in a matter of moment.

Whatever be the outcome, the international community hopes that Pakistan returns to normalcy and a democratic transition takes centrestage to eliminate the radical extremists.

Source: Independent