The Pakistani president Parvez Musharraf is under intense domestic and international pressure to restore democracy in the country. The imposition of emergency is a way by which President can consolidate his power in Pakistani politics - something which neither people at home nor in abroad are suspicious about. Although president Musharraf has promised the international community, particularly the United States, to go ahead with the scheduled January elections, it is highly unlikely that those elections would be held until Musharraf has assumed full power through the emergency by stifling the opposition.
Former PM Benazir Bhutto who arrived in Pakistan last month after a self-imposed exile hoping to work along with president Musharraf in bringing stability to the country is now the leading opposition leader determined to force the president in restoring the constitution. Bhutto has the chance to enhance her reputation further in front of the Pakistani people by leading massive protests against the military rule. But, that hope might have been dashed after she is put under house arrest by the Pakistani police.
The Pakistani authorities are suggesting the perceived threat of a suicide attack on the convoy of Benazir Bhutto as the main reason for stopping her, but actually president Musharraf is aware of the people power that the Pakistani strongwoman can generate.
By blocking moderate political forces, president Musharraf is further endangering the security situation of Pakistan as religious extremists tend to make their mark under authoritarian rule. The army’s ability to combat radical Islamists gets reduced as most of the military resources are invested to subdue the civil society. According to many political analysts, president Musharraf is more concerned in fighting his political adversaries rather than the country’s religious militants.
There’s no doubt that the US is pressing the president to restore the rule of the people and the opposition certainly hopes that constant pressure from Washington would work given the influence White House has over president Musharraf. But skepticisms are high regarding any constructive and proactive efforts on the part of the US to restore democracy in Pakistan. Many feel that the US needs Musharraf in its fight against the Al-Qaeda and the Bush regime would not do anything drastic that could jeopardize the security of American troops and interests in neighboring Afghanistan.
The Commonwealth has given Pakistan a total of 10 days to lift the emergency or face suspension from the organization of former British empires. However, the suspension is largely symbolic in nature and there was hardly any reaction in Islamabad when Pakistan remained suspended from the Commonwealth during the 1999 coup until 2004.
The interesting thing about Pakistan is the uncertainty regarding the next political move from both president Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. No one knows who manipulates whom given the bitter relationship among political heavyweights.
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