The US is clearly worried about Pakistan. The north-West frontiers have become a safe haven for Al Qaeda and Taliban, who use it to attack US forces in Afghanistan. Success in Afghanistan depends on how the Pakistan situation is dealt. Hence issues of Pakistan and Afghanistan are interlinked.
US wants to strengthen Musharraf’s hand, hence it made him smoke the peace pipe with Benazir Bhutto. The American calculation is to unite all political forces which want to curb the growing militancy in the country: Musharraf and Bhutto. It feels a democratically elected government will be in a better position to fight the radicals.
But chances are the US ‘plan’ for Pakistan might fall apart. The Musharraf group is clearly unhappy at being forced to go to bed with Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s party. The Supreme Court may play spoil sport by agreeing to nullify Benazir’s pardon. It may also hold that Musharraf is ineligible to run for presidency.
The next hurdle to cross would be to hold democratic elections in the country. Threats of bomb attacks makes free traditional campaigning next to impossible. Benazir is forced to move around with heavy security. Even Bhutto is suggesting the use of internet and mass media instead of the usual mass public rallies. Clearly political parties will face problems in reaching out to the common voters. One wonders how democratic such an election will be.
Even after assuming that even Nawaz Sharif is allowed to participate in the forthcoming elections, the credentials of both Sharif and Benazir are such that one despairs of a genuine democracy in Pakistan. Both have a autocratic, feudal mentality, which discourages new leadership to flourish in their respective parties. Such parties will struggle to deal with the militants.
While Musharraf, Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif bicker, the militants are growing from strength to strength. Richard N. Haass, President, Council on Foreign Relations is worried about the fact that radicalism is spreading quickly in Pakistan. A recent issue of Newsweek has declared that Pakistan is the most dangerous place in the world. It provides a favourable breeding ground for Al Qaeda terrorists. It provides political instability, radical Islamists, abundance of young anti-Western recruits, secluded training areas along the northern border with Afghanistan, and access to state-of-the-art electronic technology: all that is needed to manufacture terror.
It is possible that the militants in the wild NW regions have become so powerful that it is beyond the reach of the Pakistani army to defeat them. The chances further recede when we consider the fact that many elements of the army sympathize with the militants and do not want to fight them. They resent the US prodding to do so.
And of course one must not forget the role of the insidious ISI. It is a law unto itself and does it pleases. It is in cahoots with the militants. It needs the militants to keep the flames burning in Indian Kashmir. It also pursues its own agenda of keeping the cauldron boiling in Afghanistan. Thus we see any Pakistani action against the militants is doomed to failure at the very outset.
Faced with such a scenario US and the international community have good reasons to feel worried about Pakistan. One despairs about any improvement in Pakistan, even if elections are held. All the factors mentioned above leaves little room for optimism.
