The tribal areas of Pakistan (FATA) are turning out to be the biggest headache for both the US and the fledgling Pakistan government. Experts have been pointing out that the area is slipping out of the hands of Islamabad. Musharraf had tried sending in the army but there were heavy casualties with little results. Islamabad has tried to strike deals with the tribal leaders but this has made no impact on the rise of Al Qaeda/Taliban in the region.

US intel agencies now say the next attack on the US is being planned from there. It is widely believed that Laden and Zawahiri are living in the region. The Bush administration has tried all the tricks in the book to push the Pakistan government to act strongly in the outlaw area of the country, but nothing seems to work.

A desperate US is now thinking of a direct attack on the area using its own forces to flush out Al Qaeda leaders. Bush wants Laden’s head before his term ends. This has added a new urgency to the task. Stratfor believes an US action is imminent. But if this happens, it will not only make the US even more unpopular in Pakistan, but will undermine the legitimacy of the Gilani government. This will only help the Islamists.

US military action will yield little beyond perhaps an ailing Laden (being very optimistic). The action will do nothing to curb the lawlessness and influence of Islamists. That can be done only by Pakistan. Islamabad is unable to do much because some sections of the army are in cahoots with the militants. The ISI wants the tribal areas lawless so that Taliban continues flourishing here and keep its interests alive in Afghanistan.

The long-term solution would be economic growth and spread of education in the FATA. But what about the short term? There are no answers. The root of the problem is the ISI and its Afghan policy. But who will bell the cat?
Daily Times
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