New US horizons in its ‘war on terror’ are generating the striking developments in Pakistan nowadays and forcing Musharraf to take decisive action against insurgency. US intentions to strike al-Qaeda in Waziristan has further unnerved the country and forces one to think that when will this wretched dance be over?
Realizing the gravity of the situation, Pakistani foreign minister, Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri, has warned that any action against al-Qaeda in Pakistan, as the situation may cause the civilian lives, which will further aggravate people in Pakistan against Musharraf and US.
Musharraf dismantled the Red Mosque, which is a reluctant action against self-nurtured militants because US pressure is surmounting on him and he is forced to comply because Washington funds his military with $2 billion a year for Pakistan being the most firm ally in ‘war against terror’, even though this money has resulted in misuse and failure. US supported Musharraf and by doing so, it has aided disguised extremism, which it strives to combat against in Waziristan.
With the deteriorating image, internal political pressure, loopholes in the strategy on ‘war against terror’ and after lavishing blindly on Musharraf, Bush is getting impatient to uproot al-Qaeda to prove his accountability. Growing al-Qaeda strength has posed a tough situation and is a tight rope walking for both Presidents.
US can’t afford al-Qaeda to have a safe heaven in Pakistan for the one it lost in Afghanistan and Iraq. On the other hand, if it launches a military action it has to achieve victory for sure. In case it proves to be a misadventure like Iraq and Afghanistan, it will receive fierce opposition in not only US but also world over and US will be diplomatically isolated in the world community. Secondly any military offensive without Pakistan’s cooperation would not only mean to undermining Pakistan’s government but will also trigger massive protests in Pakistan, which could destabilize US beset friendly government.
In addition, Musharraf is facing life threats and had already been attacked thrice in the past. If he uses force and ruthlessly crushes al-Qaeda, it will displease his supporters and he even might have to face the chaotic situation of infighting and protests throughout the country. Musharraf is indebted to massive material and financial aid that US conferred on him for being alongside US in ‘war on terror’, but now Musharraf has to make a tough choice. If he acts according to US’s dictation, then he will be called a sold-out, or if leaves the situation as it is, the forces within Pakistan, who neither trust Musharraf nor entertain US, will eliminate him eventually.
Excluding these, more troublesome are the apprehensions of segregation in the Pakistani army, if fierce action is to be undertaken. If that happens, a grave situation will arise leading to a civil war.
Nevertheless, the situation is a tight rope walking and the choice, no doubt, is difficult to make on either side, as US adventure in Waziristan will not be an easier one to accomplish because, the area is lawless and is governed by the whimsical tribe Lords, who confer their support to al-Qaeda than to Pakistan or US. The situation is a pneumonia pill for Musharraf, which he neither can gulp down nor vomit. Amid such situation victory will be far cry in the mountainous region and that too without public and ruling support - Impossible.
