With the security and political situation across Pakistan worsening by the day, there is every chance that the country’s leaders, opposition and the army could get into an ugly political quagmire. The return of influential former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has not yet led to the expected power sharing between president Musharraf and the Pakistani strong lady, which many hope would bring some sort of political stability.
Instead, with president Musharraf fighting various court petitions against his name, his critics believe that to avoid judiciary humiliations, the president can enforce an emergency to extend his grip on the country’s cracking political setup. Now the question is what will be the impact of an emergency, if imposed, and what are the reasons for it?
Pakistan’s opposition parties have made it clear that they, along with the people of Pakistan, would never accept any emergency, which they fear would seriously undermine any sort of democratic transition. Given the prospect of potentially charged repercussions in the event of an emergency, the president is feeling the pressure from his own military chiefs and officials to impose the emergency. But why?
Many political analysts have suggested that the tough military ruler has offended many of his colleagues in the army by paving the way for Ms. Bhutto’s return to the country. It is a known fact that the Pakistani army has an inherent dislike for the Bhutto family and vice versa. The army fears that Benazir Bhutto’s primary reason for returning to Pakistan is to reduce the role of the army in Pakistani politics.
A future emergency or any martial law, as always, would impose strict controls on the media and restrict the fundamental rights of the common people. This would help president Musharraf to silence his critics and convert Pakistan into a virtual police state where no opposition will be allowed to stage anti-government demonstrations. These are basic restrictions in the case of an emergency, but as far as Pakistan is concerned, the impact could be far reaching.
There is no doubt that massive opposition protests and instability (bloodshed cannot be ruled out) would ensue in the build up to an emergency hurting Islamabad’s crumbling economy and its relations with the US and the EU. General Musharraf would stand isolated and the likes of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, with popular political support, could gain international support (more precisely, American) to pressurize Musharraf to stand down and allow a civilian government to take charge.
But president Musharraf, too, has his point in imposing an emergency. He can justify the emergency by pointing out the growing Islamist insurgency in the country to the international community. But skeptics think otherwise. Due to the massive opposition against president Musharraf, some people in the top army ranks think that their general is making the army look like villain in the eyes of the people and as a result the general is being considered a liability in the army. Predicting a backlash from his own quarters, president Musharraf might think of an extreme step (in this case an emergency) to put a plug on opposition campaign against him.
Link: Al-Jazeera
Image Link: TIME
