India has often been caught napping on Nepal. The royal coup in 2005 by king Gyanendra had surprised India; while Pakistan and China had known beforehand of it. The announcement of postponement of the November elections in Nepal has left India twiddling its thumbs. It has reasons to be frustrated.
According to some estimates about 7 billion Nepali rupees had been spent on preparing for the polls. India had donated generously by way of jeeps, electronic voting machines and other poll material.
To ensure that elections were held on November 22 India had left no stone unturned.
• Polls in June had been called off citing the disturbances in the Nepali Terai plains bordering India. India had pushed Koirala into a pact with the influential ethnic group in the Terai plains- Madhesi Janadhikar Forum. But a repercussion of this was that dissidents in the forum walked out and added to the complexity.
• India had managed to coax another party from the plains- Sadhbhavana Party to unite with its breakaway factions. But soon the dissidents broke away again.
• The merger [under the benevolent gaze of India] of the breakaway Nepali Congress [Democratic] with Koirala’s Nepali Congress Party has had bad results. Koirala was left so busy with party affairs that he paid little attention to ensure that the November elections were held on time.
Of course the main catalysts for the postponement of the polls are the Maoists. India had been instrumental in making them give up arms and join the mainstream politics in Nepal, largely through the efforts of Indian communist leaders. It will be interesting to see how India tries to coax the Maoists back again.
The Maoists have their own reasons to back away from the polls.
• They are scared that they will fare badly at the polls due to the militant activities of their trade, youth and student wings, and so are trying to buy time. They are expected to garner support of barely 10% of the Nepali people.
• There is dissatisfaction and infighting in the party.
Maoist leader Prachanda has given altruistic reasons for pulling out from the polls which are hard to swallow. He says many of his men are missing and asking their suffering families for votes does not look good.
Maoists also want the Constituent Assembly elections be based entirely on proportional representation, where voters cast ballots for political parties, which in turn appoint members to the assembly. They are doing this because they do not have leaders who can win elections.
India is naturally worried about the current situation in Nepal. Removal of monarchy was relatively easy. But cobbling together a concensus about the new dispensation is proving to be very difficult. It remeins to be seen if Indian communist leaders come to the rescue again.
