There are no moments of joy left for incumbent president Musharraf as he is facing the most crucial period of his presidential career for some whimsical decisions (sacking chief justice and putting restrictions on media) in the past and mainly due to his intransigence and dual role. Now US pressure is mounting on him for taking a decisive action against al-Qaeda - which is perhaps beyond his reach or too difficult for him to execute.
The question remains whether US should dare to dishevel the whole country as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Well, US hasn’t put option to strike Waziristan aside. If US strikes Waziristan unilaterally or with Musharraf’s support, Musharraf stands a looser. If he remains passive he’ll be called a coward and if he’ll be alongside US against al-Qaeda, he will be called a sold out or anti-Muslim.
Not only Musharraf but also Bush is facing a tough situation at home for failure in Iraq and Afghanistan. After chasing militants in the two mentioned countries, the fact that al-Qaeda is strongest since 2001 is hunting him like cruel hounds. So, at the end of his presidential career Bush is becoming impatient to leave a significant legacy to his successor and above all he wants to show the credibility of his actions in ‘war on terror‘.
People are afraid of any military offensive in Waziristan and are forced to leave the area for their safety because the military or security action in the area is imminent and the action against militants is a threat to civilian life and infrastructure.
Any action to crush al-Qaeda in Waziristan will displease Musharraf’s supporters and he’ll face the chaotic situation of infighting and protests throughout the country. The radical forces within Pakistan, who neither trust Musharraf nor entertain US, and have already attacked thrice on his life, will eventually eliminate him. Moreover, many in the Pakistani army don’t endorse action against and if Musharraf or US undertakes an action army may split thus leading the situation to a civil war.
On the other hand, it’s not the face saving action of both the presidents but the civilian response in Pakistan that will play an important role in determining how successful US and Pakistani counter-terrorism efforts in North Waziristan are - whether collective or unilateral on either side. However, the present political situation in US and Pakistan forces the necessity of making decision on both the presidents. Pakistan though criticizes the US plan of striking Waziristan, even then in such situation which course of action will be taken in the near future is unveiled.
