China And India Face Brunt Of Rising Oil Prices.

The International Energy Agency warned that demand for oil imports by China and India will almost quadruple by 2030 and could create a supply ‘crunch’ as soon as 2015 if oil producers do not step up production, energy efficiency fails to improve and demand from the two countries is not dampened.
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‘At current prices the market is signaling that stocks need to be higher, something that is in the power of producers to address,’ Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the I.E.A., told journalists at a briefing in London. ‘Since this time last year, the world outlook has deteriorated. Demand is higher and supply worsening.’
Over the last two years, China and India accounted for about 70 percent of the increase in energy demand and the world’s energy needs would increase 55 percent by 2030. Another reason for higher prices is investments not made by oil producers, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the agency said.
Strong demand has helped push oil prices to a series of records in recent weeks. Crude oil rose 1 percent, to $97.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and futures climbed to $98.62, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1983.
High economic growth in China and India could push oil prices to $159 a barrel by 2030, the agency said. Fatih Birol, the agency’s chief economist and the lead author of its flagship publication, The World Energy Outlook 2007, presented today, said that while economic growth should be encouraged because it helps to meet increasing energy demand through fostering innovation, it needs to happen in tandem with policies for energy efficiency.
Car sales in China, which overtook Japan last year and are expected to overtake the United States by 2015, contribute to rising oil demand and harm the environment and are an area where new policies could take effect, he said. ‘We’re not running out of energy or money, but we’re running out of time,’ Mr. Birol said.
China’s and India’s energy use is projected to double from 2005 to 2030. By 2030, the two countries will account for nearly half the increase in global demand. China is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s top carbon emitter this year and the largest energy consumer soon after 2010, the agency said. In India, where more than 400 million people have no access to electricity, energy demand is expected to more than double by 2030.
China and India argue that it is unfair to blame them for rising energy prices, and they have resisted calls to limit carbon emissions when their economies are trying to catch up with development levels in the West. Energy use per person in those countries remains much lower than in the industrial nations.