It is pretty much clear as to who is going to come to power in Pakistan. It is going to be the PPP-PML(Nawaz) combine. The deputy chief of PPP, Makhdoom Amin Fahim will be probably the new Premier as he is experienced. But the real power will lie in the hands of Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. They will be the real players, albeit behind the scenes.
The biggest concern for the US will be how the new government deals with the rising militancy problem. Some inkling has been provided by Asif Zardari in that regard. But Zardari is a novice in governance. What he has said reflects his confusion and the lack of cohesion in his thinking on the militancy issue.
On the one hand he says the new government favours talks with the militants. This is hardly going to go well with the US. Musharraf tried it once and failed. The Taliban/Al Qaeda only strengthened during the period of truce that Musharraf had agreed upon with the tribal elders. The US is not going to allow the new regime to go in the same direction.
Zardari than says slightly juvenile things like using the police against the militants and saving the army only for emergencies. He knows that it was only after the Frontier Corps failed that the army was sent in by Musharraf. The army too has had mixed results in the campaign. Perhaps when he talks of using the police, Zardari refers to an invigorated Frontier Corps. The US has announced that it will finance and train the body to make it more effective.
If Zardari is speaking of talks with the militants only for political consumption, then it is acceptable. If he really means what he is saying then either he has not understood fully the actual situation on the ground in the tribal areas or he is extremely naive in the matter.
One hopes wiser counsel from Nawaz Sharif and Fahim will prevail and the Pakistani government will not make the same mistake that Musharraf made about the militants in the tribal areas.
