The statement by Michael Semple, a UN official arrested by the Afghan government on Christmas Day last year, brings to the fore many vital aspects of the conflict in Afghanistan. First and foremost is that there are many Afghan leaders, not only in Kabul, but all over the country, who have vested interests in maintaining status quo. Though western objectives in the country have not been met (a worried US is asking its allies to send in more troops), these Afghans are enjoying the clout and money in the present regime. They do not have to do the fighting; NATO is doing it and keeping the Taliban at bay. Moreover they are keen that Taliban is not brought into the mainstream of Afghan politics, as it would mean loss of their clout. Semple firmly believes that some elements of the Taliban could be coaxed to join the national government in Kabul and to stop fighting the US and NATO forces. There have long been suggestions of trying to pull in the ‘good’ elements of the Taliban. ‘Good’ meaning the moderate elements in the group. The problem the US hasn’t the faintest idea of how to go about it. In fact political games played by the status-quoist elements in the Afghan polity will continue to hinder any moves in this direction. Semple brought to light another disturbing fact; that personal enmities are being settled by labeling a person as a Taliban sympathizer. The western forces, ignorant of the local situation, then go after those thus branded, ultimately driving them into the arms of Taliban. These revelations bring into sharp focus the fact that Karzai’s government has no say in large parts of Afghanistan. It has failed to establish its sway over these areas, and I do not mean only militarily. Unscrupulous elements and Taliban have filled this vacuum. US still has a long way to go in Afghanistan. Image Source: Guardian
US wants Musharraf to stay for now
Anti-Musharraf forces have won the elections in Pakistan. Both Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have been at the receiving end of Musharraf’s political games. One was thrown into prison, the other was exiled. One can hardly blame them if they now desire to clip the wings of the wily ex-general. Nawaz Sharif has publicly declared that the judges (Justice Iftikhar Chaudhury and co.) who had refused to fall in line at Musharraf’s whims must be re-instated immediately. The country’s powerful lawyers’ lobby has been making a similar demand. The spoilsport is turning out to be the usual favourite whipping boy in Pakistan, the US (and Britain). Both countries are frowning at such demands. Private meetings have taken place to try and persuade anti-Musharraf forces to drop their demands. The Washington Post attributes this US action due a fossilized mind-set in the Bush administration, which is failing to accept new realities. The real answer is more obvious and rooted in reality. The US does not want to rock the Musharraf boat till it finds an alternative to him. In the present situation of flux in Pakistan, things are far from clear yet. Zardari and Sharif may have won the elections, but the real power base in the country lies in the army. The man to watch now is Pakistan military chief, General Kayani. He has adopted a low profile till now. Musharraf had attempted to rig the recent elections so that his favored party, PML (Q), would come back to power, but Kayani had become alarmed at the strong unpopularity of Musharraf and desisted from lending the army for rigging purposes. The US will wait and watch till the situation crystallizes. The moment it finds that Kayani is willing to play ball and accepts the PPP-PML (Nawaz) government and is also amenable to US advice on policy matters, Musharraf will be dropped. Source: Independent Image
Negroponte’s Pak visit: Trailer of things to come?
What Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte will tell President Bush is going to make him go red in the face. Bush is not used to changing his mind on any issue. On Iraq, he makes daily proclamations that things are improving and that the US will be victorious in the end. No one is buying his line. But we are digressing from the point. What is Bush’s stand on Pakistan? He wanted Musharraf as President and Benazir Bhutto as Prime Minister to cozy up to each other and then fight the ‘bad guys’ (read Al Qaeda) together. Bush’s Pakistan equation is in tatters today. Benazir is no more; and almost the whole of Pakistan wants Musharraf to go too (leave the president’s chair, I mean). But Bush is Bush. So, as the new PPP-PML (Nawaz) government was taking charge, he send his aide, Negroponte, to Pakistan. The idea was to tell the new ‘sheriffs’ of Pakistan to lay off Musharraf, who also is a "good guy." Also that the new government should keep up the fight against Al Qaeda. But the messenger was in for a surprise. Negroponte was welcomed everywhere with much less warmth than he is used to. The Pakistani lawyers gave him an earful. The chairman of the Supreme Court Bar Association, Aitzaz Ahsan, gave the American envoy a lecture on why an independent judiciary was important to fight terrorism. He wanted to convince Negroponte that the US should stop being so pro-Musharraf and drop their objections to the re-instatement of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhury. He had also a tough time talking to Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. The US wants the new government to be tough on the militants, while the two Pakistani leaders favour talks with them. Negroponte had to concede that, "reconcilable elements" could be engaged in dialogue so that they "can be persuaded to participate in the democratic political process." The new Prime Minister, Gilani, said after meeting Negroponte that Parliament was now the supreme decision-making body. Pakistan supported its long alliance with the United States, but the fight against terrorism would be discussed in the legislature, he said. In other words Pakistan was not willing to be pushed around by the US like it was during Musharraf’s time. It is to be seen what happens in the future but it is certain that the US will have to put in more effort in dealing with the new democratically elected government. The wise course for the US would be to stay quiet for now and see how things go in Pakistan. Image credit IHT
US eases pressure on North Korea for little gains
President Bush seems to desperately want to add laurels to his presidency in its twilight hour. How else could one explain the striking off of North Korea from the terrorism blacklist? It is very likely that North Korea has been supplying nuclear arms technology to Iran and Syria. It is also very probable that it is continuing with its nuclear enrichment programme. President Bush not only took off the ‘bad boys’ label from North Korea but has also sent in shiploads of badly needed wheat into the country. In return for what? For a dramatic destroyal of the old Yongbyon nuclear reactor. Besides that North Korea has only given some details of its nuclear programme. What is totally missing is any mention of its enrichment plans and its aid to Iran and Syria. Many in the Bush administration are not happy with the concessions given to North Korea. It seems that Condoleezza Rice has won over Dick Cheney as far as that country is concerned. Though Rice has said there is still a long way to go and that North Korea has to do much more, one wonders why the rogue country was not squeezed further to bring it into line. The floods in the country last year have destroyed the crops. More concessions could have been got from Kim Jong Il. Instead the US seems to be taking a "big-hearted" approach towards a country that has always acted aggressively and secretly. It has contributed much to the proliferation of missiles and nuclear technology in the world. There is a saying that a dog’s tail always remains crooked. It applies prefectly to Kim Jong’s Korea. Image Source: WSJ
US helpless as Al Qaeda grows in strength in Pakistan’s tribal belt
As President Bush nears the end of his term, it seems the vow he had made in 2001 to finish off Osama bin Laden will remain unfulfilled. The reason is the Al Qaeda has found a safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. Security experts say that Al Qaeda is planning a major attack on the USA on the scale of 9/11. Despite Pakistan being on the side of the USA, why is the terror organization still thriving in Pakistan? There are no simple answers to this complex issue. 1. The Pakistani army is scared of the hardy tribals living in North and South Waziristan and in the NWFP. More than a century ago, the British had tried to tame them, with little success. This view is strongly held by Musharraf’s man on the tribal areas, General Aurakzai, who instead favours negotiations rather than military action. 2. The US is wary of sending its own soldiers in there. This is because of two reasons. Firstly, it is aware of the reputation of the tribal fighters. Secondly, it’s army is not knowledgeable of the topography. It cannot launch a campaign without the co-operation of the Pakistani military. The Pakistani government is not very enthusiastic about sending in its army there because it has got a bloody nose once too often. Also allowing US forces on the country’s soil would be political suicide, considering the anti-US feeling in Pakistan. 3. Bush has been accused of being too soft on Musharraf. Instead of banging on the table and demanding Musharraf deliver Laden’s head on a platter to him (after all, Bush continues giving millions of dollars to Pakistan every month, with no question asked). Some see this as Bush’s weakness. Others feel Bush was being wise in not pushing Musharraf too far. A kneeling Musharraf (before the US) would only have strengthened the hands of the Islamists. 4. The inclination of the US military planners of getting results with minimum human casualty has been a hindrance. Direct action by navy Seals is needed, not precision missile attacks to finish off Al qaeda in the Pak-Afghan border. The CIA officers at the Islamabad station call the personnel at the counter-terrorism center at CIA headquarters, as ‘boys with toys.’ 5. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, distracted attention of military planners from the Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Resources meant for the purpose were diverted to Iraq. For instance, when American military and intelligence officials requested additional Predator drones to survey the tribal areas, they were told no drones were available because they had been sent to Iraq. 6. Though Pakistan is supposed to help the US in the war on terror, it has a dual policy on the matter. One is the ‘co-operative’ face of Pakistan, where Pakistan military officers work with the US army and the CIA to hunt down the Al Qaeda. The other face of the Pakistan government is symbolized by the ISI. It has its own agenda, of keeping alive the jehadis on the frontier areas, so that they can be used against India and to also keep alive Pakistan’s interests In Afghanistan. With all these complexities involved, it is no wonder that bin Laden sits pretty in Pakistan and calmly plans the next attack on the US as the US fumes and frets helplessly. Source: IHT
Taleban targetting all roads leading to Kabul
The truck drivers who risk their lives everyday in Kabul have a singular important question; why can’t the Americans stop this? Once again Taleban are gaining grounds in Afghanistan and are zeroing in on Kabul. This time they are not confronting or attacking NATO forces directly. They are simply using historic time tested strategy of cutting the supply routes to NATO forces. All trucks carrying supplies to Kabul by road are becoming increasingly vulnerable to rocket attacks by guileful Taleban.In past one week, 13 trucks have been destroyed by Taleban rocket launchers. Truck drivers carrying petrol and Pepsi to NATO troops, who escape narrowly, are witness to such attacks. Its been seven years since US led coalition toppled Taleban. There are some 70,000 foreign troops on ground in Afghanistan. But yet Taleban has managed to get stronghold just outside Maydan Shar, the capital of Wardak province, 20 miles southwest of the capital. It is from this Wardak base the militants are operating on all important supply routes and roads to Kabul. These include Kabul-Khadahar and Kabul-Pakistan via Jalalabad routes, the important arterial roads in the region. This is a historic war tactic used two decades ago against the Soviets and before that against the British in 1841. Afghan army and government refuses to acknowledge this new strategy of Taleban. They claim they are still in control. But ground reports, attacks on supply convoys, aid workers, troops and claims by Taleban spokesperson clearly indicate that Taleban are applying historic strategy of beseiging all routes to Kabul to regain total control. Afghanistan’s rocky terrain has always helped local Taleban to launch such sudden attacks. There is no immediate answer to the question of the truck drivers. Afghanistan has been a difficult battle for US and its allies largely due to terrain, extreme weather and Taleban operating from bordering countries like Pakistan.The local Afghanistan government and army have not been able to help in uprooting Taleban and Al-Qaeda totally. US intentions are still a suspect in this land largely dominated by conservative muslims. Troops haven’t won total trust of local people. And very little development work in the region is infact helping Taleban to recruit new militants from frustrated local villagers.The use of rocket launchers and modern weaponary shows there is no dearth of fund, expertise and support from Arab countries. On the other hand, America has been vocal about pulling out of Iraq and sending more troops to Afghanistan. So, battlelines and strategies are becoming more clear. Both sides want a win. The role of US and allies, Afghanistan government and Pakistan will be very crucial if at all a peace process is initiated. Or else Afghanistan war may end up as most bloodied war in the history of the world. Unfortunately, neither diplomacy nor Peace, but only war and violence will be a winner once again. source: timesonline